Cut Skip or Pause

Cut Skip or Pause

The broad based USD, represented by the US dollar index has been up only since September 30th.  It has been up for 8 straight weeks until last week.  When the USD is up only it gets reffered to a “wrecking ball” and for good reason, it can have profound, often...
A Shift in the Narrative

A Shift in the Narrative

It’s time for a shift in the narrative. Back in August, the focus was on the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry-trade. After that, attention turned to China’s stimulus efforts to combat issues in its real estate and stock markets. Then, the spotlight was on the...
Global Liquidity Bazooka

Global Liquidity Bazooka

The long-anticipated move has finally happened— the Federal Reserve kicked off the monetary easing cycle with a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate cut, instead of the predicted 25 bps. But that’s just the beginning. The updated Dot Plot now projects eight...
Signed, Sealed, To Be Delivered

Signed, Sealed, To Be Delivered

Signed, Sealed, To Be Delivered The U.S. dollar faced significant pressure in August, declining across the board. The magnitude of these moves suggests a shift in market sentiment. As shown in the daily chart of the U.S. dollar index above, the only reprieve came from...
Setting the Stage

Setting the Stage

Setting the Stage At the beginning of July, I was contemplating how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would set the stage at the FOMC meeting on July 31st for a potential rate cut in September, without causing a significant rally in the equity markets or...