USD Mid-Term Report Card

USD Mid-Term Report Card

The first half of 2025 has delivered a broad-based setback for the USD, which has declined sharply against all major currencies. Year to date, the greenback is down 14.38% against the Swiss franc, 14.19% against the euro, 9.90% against the British pound, 8.84% against...
Bond’s Warning Sign

Bond’s Warning Sign

The U.S. jobs market remains robust, and uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing the Federal Reserve to pause its actions. Meanwhile, most G10 central banks, except the Bank of Japan, are likely to cut rates before the Fed resumes easing. This should theoretically...
Liberation Day Aftermath

Liberation Day Aftermath

The opening words of last month’s letter couldn’t have been more fitting: “There’s no turning back now, and the rest of the world knows it.” The events that followed proved just how true that was. On April 2nd, “Liberation Day,” the...
Narrative Flip – Game Changer

Narrative Flip – Game Changer

There’s no turning back now, and the rest of the world knows it. The reciprocal tariffs set to be announced on Wednesday, April 2nd, won’t resolve uncertainty—they will merely mark the beginning. Whatever is unveiled will serve as the opening salvo of President...
USD Mid-Term Report Card

Growth Scare

The Japanese yen was the top-performing currency in February, appreciating by 3.05% due to a combination of rising Japanese interest rates and a decline in U.S. 10-year interest rates. As illustrated in the chart above, the USD weakened against the yen, dropping from...