by Tony Valente | Oct 2, 2024 | Uncategorized
The long-anticipated move has finally happened— the Federal Reserve kicked off the monetary easing cycle with a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate cut, instead of the predicted 25 bps. But that’s just the beginning. The updated Dot Plot now projects eight...
by Tony Valente | Sep 5, 2024 | Uncategorized
Signed, Sealed, To Be Delivered The U.S. dollar faced significant pressure in August, declining across the board. The magnitude of these moves suggests a shift in market sentiment. As shown in the daily chart of the U.S. dollar index above, the only reprieve came from...
by Tony Valente | Aug 5, 2024 | Uncategorized
Setting the Stage At the beginning of July, I was contemplating how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would set the stage at the FOMC meeting on July 31st for a potential rate cut in September, without causing a significant rally in the equity markets or...
by Tony Valente | Jul 3, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch -July 3, 2024 Over the last month, I can’t help but think of the 90’s Seinfeld episode, “The Bizarro Jerry”. It was based on the 60’s DC Comic Bizarro World in which society is ruled by the Bizarro Code which states “Us do opposite of all...
by Tony Valente | Jun 4, 2024 | Uncategorized
Market Place Dispatch Although the USD was down against all the majors in May, it is a little deceiving as the month was a tale of two halves. The first part of the month was marred by weak real economic data which weighed on the USD. In the second part of the...
by Tony Valente | May 1, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch May 1, 2024 The US has endured the fastest increase in interest rates, from zero to 5.5% yet inflation remains sticky and threatens to reaccelerate. Why is that? The answer is fiscal dominance. The government is spending at a higher rate than...
by Tony Valente | Apr 2, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch, April 2, 2024 The big surprise in March was a rate cut of 25bps to 1.5% from the Swiss National Bank. The SNB’s decision, its first rate cut in nine years, made it the first major central bank to dial back tighter monetary policy aimed at...
by Tony Valente | Mar 6, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch, March 06, 2024 Last year, the prevailing narrative for global monetary policy was “higher for longer”. That came to an abrupt end in mid-December, after the Fed’s policy meeting which signaled that it was time to think about cutting rates. This...
by Tony Valente | Feb 6, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch, Feb 05, 2024 What a difference a month makes. The USD is up against every major currency this month after being down against ever single currency last month. Last month, the currency narrative changed from “higher for longer” to “cuts, cuts,...
