by Tony Valente | Feb 4, 2025 | Uncategorized
The CAD was the weakest performer in January, pressured by a rate cut from the Bank of Canada and renewed tariff threats from President Trump. In contrast, Japan saw the opposite trend—the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, and the absence of U.S. tariff threats...
by Tony Valente | Jan 8, 2025 | Uncategorized
At the start of 2024, market consensus widely predicted that the U.S. Federal Reserve would slash interest rates six times, with speculation rising to as many as seven cuts by mid-January. A recession, deemed imminent, was expected to drive this aggressive monetary...
by Tony Valente | Dec 3, 2024 | Uncategorized
The broad based USD, represented by the US dollar index has been up only since September 30th. It has been up for 8 straight weeks until last week. When the USD is up only it gets reffered to a “wrecking ball” and for good reason, it can have profound, often...
by Tony Valente | Nov 15, 2024 | Uncategorized
It’s time for a shift in the narrative. Back in August, the focus was on the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry-trade. After that, attention turned to China’s stimulus efforts to combat issues in its real estate and stock markets. Then, the spotlight was on the...
by Tony Valente | Oct 2, 2024 | Uncategorized
The long-anticipated move has finally happened— the Federal Reserve kicked off the monetary easing cycle with a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate cut, instead of the predicted 25 bps. But that’s just the beginning. The updated Dot Plot now projects eight...
by Tony Valente | Sep 5, 2024 | Uncategorized
Signed, Sealed, To Be Delivered The U.S. dollar faced significant pressure in August, declining across the board. The magnitude of these moves suggests a shift in market sentiment. As shown in the daily chart of the U.S. dollar index above, the only reprieve came from...
by Tony Valente | Aug 5, 2024 | Uncategorized
Setting the Stage At the beginning of July, I was contemplating how Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would set the stage at the FOMC meeting on July 31st for a potential rate cut in September, without causing a significant rally in the equity markets or...
by Tony Valente | Jul 3, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch -July 3, 2024 Over the last month, I can’t help but think of the 90’s Seinfeld episode, “The Bizarro Jerry”. It was based on the 60’s DC Comic Bizarro World in which society is ruled by the Bizarro Code which states “Us do opposite of all...
by Tony Valente | Jun 4, 2024 | Uncategorized
Market Place Dispatch Although the USD was down against all the majors in May, it is a little deceiving as the month was a tale of two halves. The first part of the month was marred by weak real economic data which weighed on the USD. In the second part of the...
by Tony Valente | May 1, 2024 | Uncategorized
The Market Dispatch May 1, 2024 The US has endured the fastest increase in interest rates, from zero to 5.5% yet inflation remains sticky and threatens to reaccelerate. Why is that? The answer is fiscal dominance. The government is spending at a higher rate than...
